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2016 Senate · UT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,479 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 60%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.06% · Republican 68.15%

R+41.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 60 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.058 − 68.146 = -41.088
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-41.088) = 17.088
  4. Absolute miss = |17.088| = 17.088

The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48904, race ID 73 (538 database).