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2016 President · UT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,479 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 34%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 34 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-18.078) = 15.078
  4. Absolute miss = |15.078| = 15.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48904, race ID 646 (538 database).