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2016 Governor · UT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,479 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 58%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.74% · Republican 66.74%

R+38.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 58 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.741 − 66.740 = -37.999
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-37.999) = 17.999
  4. Absolute miss = |17.999| = 17.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 18.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48904, race ID 56 (538 database).