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2016 President · SC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,698 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.67% · Republican 54.94%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.673 − 54.939 = -14.266
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-14.266) = 10.266
  4. Absolute miss = |10.266| = 10.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48900, race ID 642 (538 database).