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2016 Senate · OR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,595 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 63% · Republican 32%

D+31.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.60% · Republican 33.35%

D+23.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 63 − 32 = 31.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.601 − 33.348 = 23.253
  3. Signed miss = 31.00 − (23.253) = 7.747
  4. Absolute miss = |7.747| = 7.747

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48897, race ID 65 (538 database).