Skip to content

2016 Senate · OK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,271 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 61%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 24.58% · Republican 67.74%

R+43.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 61 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 24.579 − 67.739 = -43.160
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-43.160) = 19.160
  4. Absolute miss = |19.160| = 19.160

The poll overstated the Democrat by 19.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48896, race ID 76 (538 database).