Skip to content

2016 Senate · OH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,860 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 57%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.16% · Republican 58.03%

R+20.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 57 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.158 − 58.029 = -20.871
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-20.871) = 2.871
  4. Absolute miss = |2.871| = 2.871

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48895, race ID 67 (538 database).