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2016 Senate · ND

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 313 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 74%

R+51.0

The certified result

Democrat 16.97% · Republican 78.48%

R+61.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 74 = -51.00
  2. Actual margin = 16.968 − 78.478 = -61.510
  3. Signed miss = -51.00 − (-61.510) = 10.510
  4. Absolute miss = |10.510| = 10.510

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48894, race ID 77 (538 database).