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2016 Governor · NC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 3,126 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 43%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.02% · Republican 48.80%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 43 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.016 − 48.798 = 0.218
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (0.218) = 10.782
  4. Absolute miss = |10.782| = 10.782

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48893, race ID 52 (538 database).