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2016 Senate · NY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,208 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 71% · Republican 25%

D+46.0

The certified result

Democrat 65.62% · Republican 23.64%

D+42.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 71 − 25 = 46.00
  2. Actual margin = 65.618 − 23.644 = 41.974
  3. Signed miss = 46.00 − (41.974) = 4.027
  4. Absolute miss = |4.027| = 4.027

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48892, race ID 61 (538 database).