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2016 President · NM

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 749 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 38%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.26% · Republican 40.04%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 38 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.256 − 40.043 = 8.213
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (8.213) = -6.213
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.213| = 6.213

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48891, race ID 634 (538 database).