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2016 Governor · NH

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 696 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 42%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.57% · Republican 48.84%

R+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.573 − 48.842 = -2.269
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (-2.269) = 15.270
  4. Absolute miss = |15.270| = 15.270

The poll overstated the Democrat by 15.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48889, race ID 54 (538 database).