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2016 President · NV

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,207 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.92% · Republican 45.50%

D+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.918 − 45.501 = 2.417
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.417) = -0.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.417| = 0.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48888, race ID 635 (538 database).