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2016 President · MT

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 449 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 52%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.75% · Republican 56.17%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 52 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.746 − 56.168 = -20.422
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-20.422) = -1.577
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.577| = 1.577

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48886, race ID 628 (538 database).