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2016 Governor · MO

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,368 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.57% · Republican 51.14%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.570 − 51.137 = -5.567
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.567) = 6.567
  4. Absolute miss = |6.567| = 6.567

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48885, race ID 50 (538 database).