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2016 President · ME

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 779 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 38%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 44.87%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 38 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.830 − 44.870 = 2.960
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.960) = 5.040
  4. Absolute miss = |5.040| = 5.040

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48879, race ID 623 (538 database).