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2016 President · LA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 982 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 52%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.45% · Republican 58.09%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.450 − 58.089 = -19.639
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.639) = 5.639
  4. Absolute miss = |5.639| = 5.639

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48878, race ID 620 (538 database).