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2016 President · KY

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,315 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 54%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.68% · Republican 62.52%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 54 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.682 − 62.520 = -29.838
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-29.838) = 10.837
  4. Absolute miss = |10.837| = 10.837

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48877, race ID 619 (538 database).