Skip to content

2016 President · KS

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,311 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 49%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.05% · Republican 56.66%

R+20.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 49 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.052 − 56.655 = -20.603
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-20.603) = 7.602
  4. Absolute miss = |7.602| = 7.602

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48876, race ID 618 (538 database).