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2016 President · IL

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,700 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 35%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 38.76%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 35 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.825 − 38.762 = 17.063
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (17.063) = -0.064
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.064| = 0.064

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48874, race ID 616 (538 database).