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2016 Senate · HI

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 426 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 70% · Republican 26%

D+44.0

The certified result

Democrat 73.60% · Republican 22.24%

D+51.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 70 − 26 = 44.00
  2. Actual margin = 73.603 − 22.242 = 51.361
  3. Signed miss = 44.00 − (51.361) = -7.361
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.361| = 7.361

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48871, race ID 64 (538 database).