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2016 President · GA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,419 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.131) = 5.131
  4. Absolute miss = |5.131| = 5.131

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48870, race ID 612 (538 database).