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2016 President · DE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 367 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 39%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 41.71%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 39 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.086 − 41.713 = 11.373
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (11.373) = -0.373
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.373| = 0.373

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48868, race ID 610 (538 database).