Skip to content

2016 Governor · DE

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 367 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.34% · Republican 39.19%

D+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.340 − 39.187 = 19.153
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (19.153) = -3.153
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.153| = 3.153

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48868, race ID 48 (538 database).