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2016 President · DC

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 310 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 85% · Republican 7%

D+78.0

The certified result

Democrat 90.86% · Republican 4.09%

D+86.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 85 − 7 = 78.00
  2. Actual margin = 90.864 − 4.087 = 86.777
  3. Signed miss = 78.00 − (86.777) = -8.776
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.776| = 8.776

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48867, race ID 609 (538 database).