Skip to content

2016 President · AR

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 930 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 56%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.65% · Republican 60.57%

R+26.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 56 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.653 − 60.574 = -26.921
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-26.921) = 2.921
  4. Absolute miss = |2.921| = 2.921

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48863, race ID 604 (538 database).