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2016 Senate · AZ

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 2,609 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 50%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.75% · Republican 53.71%

R+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 50 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.749 − 53.710 = -12.961
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-12.961) = 7.962
  4. Absolute miss = |7.962| = 7.962

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48862, race ID 87 (538 database).