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2016 Senate · AK

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 409 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 55%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 11.62% · Republican 44.36%

R+32.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 55 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 11.623 − 44.358 = -32.735
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-32.735) = 10.735
  4. Absolute miss = |10.735| = 10.735

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48861, race ID 69 (538 database).