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2016 President · AL

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2016-11-04 (4 days before the election) · 1,131 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 55%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.36% · Republican 62.08%

R+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 55 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.358 − 62.083 = -27.725
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-27.725) = 8.725
  4. Absolute miss = |8.725| = 8.725

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48860, race ID 603 (538 database).