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2016 President · WI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,794 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.2% · Republican 37.7%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 47.22%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.2 − 37.7 = 4.50
  2. Actual margin = 46.454 − 47.218 = -0.764
  3. Signed miss = 4.50 − (-0.764) = 5.264
  4. Absolute miss = |5.264| = 5.264

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48768, race ID 650 (538 database).