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2016 President · WA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,985 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.4% · Republican 31.7%

D+15.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.54% · Republican 36.83%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.4 − 31.7 = 15.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.539 − 36.833 = 15.706
  3. Signed miss = 15.70 − (15.706) = -0.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.006| = 0.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48766, race ID 649 (538 database).