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2016 President · VA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 2,460 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 37%

D+9.1

The certified result

Democrat 49.73% · Republican 44.41%

D+5.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 37 = 9.10
  2. Actual margin = 49.728 − 44.407 = 5.321
  3. Signed miss = 9.10 − (5.321) = 3.779
  4. Absolute miss = |3.779| = 3.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48765, race ID 647 (538 database).