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2016 President · UT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 676 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 23.7% · Republican 32.8%

R+9.1

The certified result

Democrat 27.46% · Republican 45.54%

R+18.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23.7 − 32.8 = -9.10
  2. Actual margin = 27.460 − 45.538 = -18.078
  3. Signed miss = -9.10 − (-18.078) = 8.978
  4. Absolute miss = |8.978| = 8.978

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48763, race ID 646 (538 database).