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2016 President · OK

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 949 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 26.8% · Republican 53.4%

R+26.6

The certified result

Democrat 28.93% · Republican 65.32%

R+36.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 26.8 − 53.4 = -26.60
  2. Actual margin = 28.932 − 65.323 = -36.391
  3. Signed miss = -26.60 − (-36.391) = 9.791
  4. Absolute miss = |9.791| = 9.791

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48755, race ID 638 (538 database).