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2016 President · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 3,455 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.2% · Republican 41.5%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 43.56% · Republican 51.69%

R+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.2 − 41.5 = 1.70
  2. Actual margin = 43.558 − 51.688 = -8.130
  3. Signed miss = 1.70 − (-8.130) = 9.830
  4. Absolute miss = |9.830| = 9.830

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48754, race ID 637 (538 database).