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2016 President · ND

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 201 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32.3% · Republican 44.8%

R+12.5

The certified result

Democrat 27.23% · Republican 62.96%

R+35.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.3 − 44.8 = -12.50
  2. Actual margin = 27.227 − 62.956 = -35.729
  3. Signed miss = -12.50 − (-35.729) = 23.229
  4. Absolute miss = |23.229| = 23.229

The poll overstated the Democrat by 23.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48753, race ID 630 (538 database).