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2016 President · NY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 4,663 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.7% · Republican 31.4%

D+21.3

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.7 − 31.4 = 21.30
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 21.30 − (23.993) = -2.694
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.694| = 2.694

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48751, race ID 636 (538 database).