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2016 President · MT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 307 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31.7% · Republican 44.1%

R+12.4

The certified result

Democrat 35.75% · Republican 56.17%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31.7 − 44.1 = -12.40
  2. Actual margin = 35.746 − 56.168 = -20.422
  3. Signed miss = -12.40 − (-20.422) = 8.023
  4. Absolute miss = |8.023| = 8.023

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48745, race ID 628 (538 database).