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2016 President · MO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,814 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35.8% · Republican 43.3%

R+7.5

The certified result

Democrat 38.13% · Republican 56.77%

R+18.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.8 − 43.3 = -7.50
  2. Actual margin = 38.135 − 56.772 = -18.637
  3. Signed miss = -7.50 − (-18.637) = 11.137
  4. Absolute miss = |11.137| = 11.137

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48744, race ID 626 (538 database).