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2016 President · MN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,736 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.3% · Republican 35.9%

D+6.4

The certified result

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.92%

D+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.3 − 35.9 = 6.40
  2. Actual margin = 46.445 − 44.925 = 1.520
  3. Signed miss = 6.40 − (1.520) = 4.880
  4. Absolute miss = |4.880| = 4.880

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48742, race ID 625 (538 database).