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2016 President · MI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 3,014 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 36%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.22% · Republican 47.44%

R+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 36 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.216 − 47.439 = -0.223
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.223) = 6.223
  4. Absolute miss = |6.223| = 6.223

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48741, race ID 624 (538 database).