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2016 President · MA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,963 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.3% · Republican 28.6%

D+22.7

The certified result

Democrat 60.01% · Republican 32.81%

D+27.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.3 − 28.6 = 22.70
  2. Actual margin = 60.005 − 32.808 = 27.197
  3. Signed miss = 22.70 − (27.197) = -4.497
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.497| = 4.497

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48740, race ID 621 (538 database).