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2016 President · LA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,355 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35.9% · Republican 47.3%

R+11.4

The certified result

Democrat 38.45% · Republican 58.09%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35.9 − 47.3 = -11.40
  2. Actual margin = 38.450 − 58.089 = -19.639
  3. Signed miss = -11.40 − (-19.639) = 8.239
  4. Absolute miss = |8.239| = 8.239

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48737, race ID 620 (538 database).