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2016 President · KY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,229 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32.2% · Republican 52.2%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.68% · Republican 62.52%

R+29.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32.2 − 52.2 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.682 − 62.520 = -29.838
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-29.838) = 9.837
  4. Absolute miss = |9.837| = 9.837

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48736, race ID 619 (538 database).