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2016 President · IN

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 1,742 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36.6% · Republican 43.8%

R+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 37.77% · Republican 56.94%

R+19.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.6 − 43.8 = -7.20
  2. Actual margin = 37.775 − 56.940 = -19.165
  3. Signed miss = -7.20 − (-19.165) = 11.965
  4. Absolute miss = |11.965| = 11.965

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48733, race ID 617 (538 database).