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2016 President · IL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 3,448 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 33.1%

D+15.2

The certified result

Democrat 55.83% · Republican 38.76%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 33.1 = 15.20
  2. Actual margin = 55.825 − 38.762 = 17.063
  3. Signed miss = 15.20 − (17.063) = -1.864
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.864| = 1.864

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48732, race ID 616 (538 database).