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2016 President · ID

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 25.3% · Republican 44.8%

R+19.5

The certified result

Democrat 27.49% · Republican 59.26%

R+31.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25.3 − 44.8 = -19.50
  2. Actual margin = 27.492 − 59.261 = -31.769
  3. Signed miss = -19.50 − (-31.769) = 12.269
  4. Absolute miss = |12.269| = 12.269

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48731, race ID 615 (538 database).