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2016 President · HI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 289 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.3% · Republican 27.9%

D+22.4

The certified result

Democrat 62.22% · Republican 30.04%

D+32.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.3 − 27.9 = 22.40
  2. Actual margin = 62.221 − 30.039 = 32.182
  3. Signed miss = 22.40 − (32.182) = -9.783
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.783| = 9.783

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48730, race ID 613 (538 database).