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2016 President · GA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 2,663 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40.5% · Republican 45.4%

R+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 50.77%

R+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40.5 − 45.4 = -4.90
  2. Actual margin = 45.640 − 50.771 = -5.131
  3. Signed miss = -4.90 − (-5.131) = 0.231
  4. Absolute miss = |0.231| = 0.231

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48729, race ID 612 (538 database).