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2016 President · DE

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2016-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 260 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.7% · Republican 31.6%

D+19.1

The certified result

Democrat 53.09% · Republican 41.71%

D+11.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.7 − 31.6 = 19.10
  2. Actual margin = 53.086 − 41.713 = 11.373
  3. Signed miss = 19.10 − (11.373) = 7.727
  4. Absolute miss = |7.727| = 7.727

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48726, race ID 610 (538 database).